Posted by blowlamp on 20/01/2023 18:20:51:
All of this soon gets much more complicated if you factor in survival rate & death rate alongside the birth rate.
I would have thought a modern day person with lowered living standards would be less likely to reproduce, less likely to survive the hardship and therefore more likely to die before their time.
As I say the critical factor is are they going to get looked after in their old age. In the UK there is state support for the elderly so having a large family simply to ensure elderly care is not a factor. I would say having no children is a worry though. So yes a person in a ‘modern’ country with decent healthcare and elderly support may be less likely to have a large number of children in straightened circumstances. These countries tend not to have high birth rates anyway so the effect is going to be minimal.
There are a lot of countries who do not fit the above description which is where you find the highest birth rates and where poverty levels are also high. These are the places that drive global population growth.
All of this is a very powerful argument for foreign aid and attempts to lift countries out of poverty.
regards Martin
PS The trouble is as the joke goes, if we wanted to get to a smaller global population we would be best not to start from here.