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  • #630157
    Nigel Graham 2
    Participant
      @nigelgraham2

      I think you may be right. Whether we prevent them or not we will all struggle to aim for that, and will all suffer from either eventuality.

      We live in one of the have-it-all nations while still wanting more (How many of the most basic aspects of our lives, before any hobbies or cultural activities, need rely on things that "plug in the wall"?). While huge areas of the world naturally want vital needs that can only be delivered by mineral fuels or plugs in walls. Many would like have the sockets to plug things into.

      Our society waffles virtuously about saving "energy" without worrying what the word means, and by ending using mineral fuels; but insists on increasing waste such as "smart" 'speakers, video-type advertising hoardings and operating anything and everything by "smart"-'phones. Gadgets not even built domestically but imported from many thousands of miles away.

      While for governments of any flavour to keep hammering we motorists is very hypocritical, when they continue to allow the huge waste of electricity in motorway service areas and by the spreading rash of those giant ad displays, and the continued development of big out-of-town shopping-centres designed for car users only.

      Hindsight is wonderful, letting us see we should have been investigating for example, using hydrogen as a fuel and ore-reducer, developing nuclear power, encouraging domestic manufacturing, etc; decades ago when the focus was on minerals depletion rather then the climate.

      (The Swedish and German iron industries were using arc furnaces for iron-ore smelting 100 years ago – though my reference does not state the reducing-agent. The text is a contemporary electrical-engineering book that also covers the battery-electric vehicles of the time, when electric cars were allowed in London's Royal Parks that banned the petrol versions!)

      Climate-change induced by atmospheric pollution was predicted well over 100 years ago, but the forecast danger-point was well ahead of our own time, now, so largely ignored in an era of "taming Nature"; then probably pushed out of mind by two World Wars and economic depressions.

      By our collective failure over the last fifty years, we now face a bizarre, frantic scramble tainted by politics and desperately low technical literacy, to end one set of things before ensuring sufficient supplies of practicable, replacement things.

      Replacements that will not only husband finite resources but are now also "enviromentally friendly" – to verge on the trendy jargon beloved of those barely knowing "energy" from "power".

      Do our much-vaunted replacements meet both criteria? Not very well, if at all.

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      #630158
      John Doe 2
      Participant
        @johndoe2

        I agree. On the (very rare) occasions when I drive, I look at the thousands of cars on the roads, 95% of which have internal combustion engines, and I just wonder how the hell we are going to get out of this mess.

        Ditto, home insulation. Our house was built in 1989, by which time, insulation was fully understood, but it has solid concrete ground floors, which are like blocks of ice right now, and suck the heat out of the house. There is not enough clearance to put insulation (other than carpet) on top, so I face the prospect of digging all the ground floor out and going deeper to accommodate an insulation layer; as well as improving the insulation in the roof, windows and walls. And I noticed some new houses being built yesterday, that also had no insulation under the ground floor – just compacted grading.

        Yet, it is possible to build houses that literally take only a few hundred Watts to heat them.

        #630165
        Vic
        Participant
          @vic
          Posted by John Doe 2 on 19/01/2023 11:00:10:

          Ditto, home insulation. Our house was built in 1989, by which time, insulation was fully understood, but it has solid concrete ground floors, which are like blocks of ice right now, and suck the heat out of the house. There is not enough clearance to put insulation (other than carpet) on top, so I face the prospect of digging all the ground floor out and going deeper to accommodate an insulation layer; as well as improving the insulation in the roof, windows and walls. And I noticed some new houses being built yesterday, that also had no insulation under the ground floor – just compacted grading.

          Yet, it is possible to build houses that literally take only a few hundred Watts to heat them.

          Yes it is silly, I watched a series on TV some time in the 1970’s called House for the future. Insulation was a no brainier even then. Fifty years later they still aren’t insulating houses properly.

          On the earlier mentioned issue by someone else about changing habits. The public rarely seem to have any real choice about it, they’re just along for the ride. If for example the lack of new oil fields in the coming years doubles, triples or quadruples the cost of petrol I suspect most people will end up driving less. Even with recent price hikes I decided not to make unnecessary journeys.

          Did anyone else see this the other day?

          Exxon Prediction

          #630170
          Martin Kyte
          Participant
            @martinkyte99762

            So much focus on energy sources and technical changes. The real elephant in the room is our economic structure. We rely on year on year growth to stay afloat the whole of which is based on increased consumption. We have to change the model.

            To take just a small example, during the pandemic many people were able and permitted to work from home myself included. This cut road use quite significantly but instead of exploiting this gain we hear calls from government and today James Dyson demanding that this practice is outlawed in the name of growth.

            The challenge is how a nation can live well on less and still function economically.
            regards Martin

            #630171
            Hopper
            Participant
              @hopper

              Posted by Vic on 19/01/2023 11:23:35:…

              Did anyone else see this the other day?

              Exxon Prediction

              Reynolds Tobacco all over again. Criminal. There should be serious jail time involved for those responsible.

              Re housing insulation: Had to laugh at reports recently that Ukrainian refugees staying in British homes were appalled at how cold they are. Ukraine, like Russia, has been building fully insulated housing forever. Saw a pic of one building site and it looked like 6" thick styrofoam or similar insulation sandwiched between an inner and outer brick wall. And their concrete floors have pipes embedded in them to carry hot water or steam from the central heating boiler.

              #630173
              peak4
              Participant
                @peak4

                I re-discovered this the other day, NanoFlowCell. I'd come across it years ago, but had largely erased it from memory.
                Beware, the website is hard on the eyes, until you scroll the top banner off screen.
                https://www.nanoflowcell.com/

                There's quite a few videos on Youtube about it, going back something like 8 years, but here's a more modern one

                Having listened to the whole of the video, I'm not promoting the presenter's conclusions, but it does give a bit of an insight.

                Bill

                Edited By peak4 on 19/01/2023 12:42:52

                #630176
                Vic
                Participant
                  @vic
                  Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 11:41:41:

                  So much focus on energy sources and technical changes. The real elephant in the room is our economic structure. We rely on year on year growth to stay afloat the whole of which is based on increased consumption. We have to change the model.

                  To take just a small example, during the pandemic many people were able and permitted to work from home myself included. This cut road use quite significantly but instead of exploiting this gain we hear calls from government and today James Dyson demanding that this practice is outlawed in the name of growth.

                  The challenge is how a nation can live well on less and still function economically.
                  regards Martin

                  We’re on the same wavelength, they keep on about growth. I think they sometimes forget we have finite resources. Large numbers of the public are struggling to pay their bills at the moment but I suspect the rich and super rich like Dyson are doing quite nicely?

                  #630177
                  J Hancock
                  Participant
                    @jhancock95746

                    Dare no-one mention………..there may be too many of us ?

                    The MSM even predicting the natural decline of the Chinese population as a BAD thing !

                    I thought our prosperity would improve with automation making up for a smaller number of people.

                    #630220
                    Robert Atkinson 2
                    Participant
                      @robertatkinson2
                      Posted by peak4 on 19/01/2023 12:31:05:

                      I re-discovered this the other day, NanoFlowCell. I'd come across it years ago, but had largely erased it from memory.
                      Beware, the website is hard on the eyes, until you scroll the top banner off screen.
                      https://www.nanoflowcell.com/

                      There's quite a few videos on Youtube about it, going back something like 8 years, but here's a more modern one

                      Having listened to the whole of the video, I'm not promoting the presenter's conclusions, but it does give a bit of an insight.

                      Bill

                      Edited By peak4 on 19/01/2023 12:42:52

                      A lot of miss-direction on the website. They seem to be very keen not to say "battery" but that is what it is. The difference id the anode and cathode are liquid. The cells are sized to suit the power requirement and the liquid storage is sized for the energy requirement. However they have drawbacks. First is charge / discharge efficency. This is only 40 to 75% compared to 95% for lithium batteries. Second is they need to be hot to work. They require quite a bit of "support" plant.

                      Robert.

                      #630243
                      Paul Kemp
                      Participant
                        @paulkemp46892
                        Posted by Robert Atkinson 2 on 19/01/2023 08:31:46:

                        Separate note, one thing that I've not seen mentioned re hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. H2 fuel cells are small, about 50% efficent and run at low temperatures. Thistis a problem bcause if you have a 100kW fuel cell you have to get rid of 10kW of heat. This is a lot harder than with an ICE due to no significant energy in the exhaust (for an ICE roughly 50% of waste heat removal is by the exhaust) and low temperature differential to ambient. It's a signficant challenge for a car.

                        Robert G8RPI.

                        Fuel cell efficiency for PEM is an interesting one, efficiencies over 60% have been claimed, some in the high 60’s however in my (non car) world they are usually 200kw units linked together to provide the base demand. However, maximum efficiency does not normally correspond with maximum output but sits around 2/3 of their maximum rating. They do run at a relatively low temperature and there are several ways of managing cooling particularly if teamed up with liquid cooled batteries. If you are running on liquid H2 you have a ready made source of cooling that will take far more heat than you want to surrender! LH2 has its own challenges and and risks in terms of cryogenic temperature and of course costs more to produce with the additional compression and cooling cycles but it is significantly safer in terms of pressure and provides around twice the energy by volume than gas at 700bar. One drawback with PEM low temp cells is they require high purity gas, a high temperature cell is more tolerant to lower gas quality.

                        A step further than hydrogen for gas boilers expounded at an event I attended was high purity H2 in mains to houses with fuel cells installed could provide individual electricity supply to each house, killing the load on the grid and power stations in an instant and also providing a heat source for water and winter heating. Given a fuel cell life is currently relatively short (depending on load cycle) that will be a significant burden to those at the bottom of the money tree! Be interesting if that ever grows legs!

                        Definitely Hydrogen is not the whole answer to everything energy but it does I think have a part to play. Anyone watched the JCB hydrogen video on the net?

                        Paul.

                        #630250
                        Robert Atkinson 2
                        Participant
                          @robertatkinson2
                          Posted by Paul Kemp on 20/01/2023 01:08:32:

                          Posted by Robert Atkinson 2 on 19/01/2023 08:31:46:

                          Separate note, one thing that I've not seen mentioned re hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. H2 fuel cells are small, about 50% efficent and run at low temperatures. Thistis a problem bcause if you have a 100kW fuel cell you have to get rid of 10kW of heat. This is a lot harder than with an ICE due to no significant energy in the exhaust (for an ICE roughly 50% of waste heat removal is by the exhaust) and low temperature differential to ambient. It's a signficant challenge for a car.

                          Robert G8RPI.

                          Fuel cell efficiency for PEM is an interesting one, efficiencies over 60% have been claimed, some in the high 60’s however in my (non car) world they are usually 200kw units linked together to provide the base demand. However, maximum efficiency does not normally correspond with maximum output but sits around 2/3 of their maximum rating. They do run at a relatively low temperature and there are several ways of managing cooling particularly if teamed up with liquid cooled batteries. If you are running on liquid H2 you have a ready made source of cooling that will take far more heat than you want to surrender! LH2 has its own challenges and and risks in terms of cryogenic temperature and of course costs more to produce with the additional compression and cooling cycles but it is significantly safer in terms of pressure and provides around twice the energy by volume than gas at 700bar. One drawback with PEM low temp cells is they require high purity gas, a high temperature cell is more tolerant to lower gas quality.

                          A step further than hydrogen for gas boilers expounded at an event I attended was high purity H2 in mains to houses with fuel cells installed could provide individual electricity supply to each house, killing the load on the grid and power stations in an instant and also providing a heat source for water and winter heating. Given a fuel cell life is currently relatively short (depending on load cycle) that will be a significant burden to those at the bottom of the money tree! Be interesting if that ever grows legs!

                          Definitely Hydrogen is not the whole answer to everything energy but it does I think have a part to play. Anyone watched the JCB hydrogen video on the net?

                          Paul.

                          Jut realised I made a typo for h2 fuell cell with 100kW electrical out put you have to get rid of 100kW of heat not 10

                          Robert.

                          #630285
                          blowlamp
                          Participant
                            @blowlamp
                            A 30 minute discussion about the electric vehicles now available.
                            #630295
                            blowlamp
                            Participant
                              @blowlamp
                              Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 09:44:41:

                              Posted by JA on 19/01/2023 09:28:26:

                              Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 09:15:57:

                              I think that the one thing that has not seemed to have sunk in to some in this thread is that we can no longer assume that we can carry on doing all the things we do now. Life is going to have to change dramatically. Less travel, less consumption and less waste.

                              regards Martin

                              In other words, use less energy. I fully agree with you but I feel that this is so unlikely, about the same likelihood as fusion power becoming a reality within the next 50 years or colonizing Mars.

                              JA

                              In other words we are unlikely to prevent the extremes of climate change and will have to take the consequences.

                              Martin

                              The easiest and most predictable way to reduce energy comsumption would be to reduce the population.

                              #630297
                              Martin Kyte
                              Participant
                                @martinkyte99762

                                So how exactly do you propose this “easy” solution be carried out?

                                regards Martin

                                #630305
                                Clive Steer
                                Participant
                                  @clivesteer55943

                                  The laws of Darwinian natural selection are still at work. However with regard to Homo Erectus the selection process has become less natural and more mechanised. What countries population would not be asking their leaders and military to do something when there's no food on the table or fuel in their tanks. With the rate of the world population growth at present we already have "Trouble right here in River City". We could handle the situation well but if history tells us anything the human race invariably handles it badly. A rather pessimistic view but none that have not already been portrayed in many Sci-fi films. If the views expressed on social media are a reflection of our society we are in for a bumpy ride.

                                  CS

                                  #630308
                                  Ady1
                                  Participant
                                    @ady1

                                    May not have been posted yet

                                    Diesel engine on hydrogen

                                    #630317
                                    blowlamp
                                    Participant
                                      @blowlamp
                                      Posted by Martin Kyte on 20/01/2023 13:43:00:

                                      So how exactly do you propose this “easy” solution be carried out?

                                      regards Martin

                                      Accelerated 'natural wastage' due to a decline in living standards might move things on a bit..

                                      #630324
                                      Martin Kyte
                                      Participant
                                        @martinkyte99762

                                        Around the world as living standards go up the family size correspondingly decreases. The driver for this is if people feel more secure about their old age they don’t rely on a large number of children to support them. The side effect of this is there are less mouths to feed so the family is less poor.

                                        Drive down living standards and the birth rate will increase.

                                        Want to have another go?

                                        regards Martin

                                        #630327
                                        blowlamp
                                        Participant
                                          @blowlamp
                                          Posted by Martin Kyte on 20/01/2023 16:03:07:

                                          Around the world as living standards go up the family size correspondingly decreases. The driver for this is if people feel more secure about their old age they don’t rely on a large number of children to support them. The side effect of this is there are less mouths to feed so the family is less poor.

                                          Drive down living standards and the birth rate will increase.

                                          Want to have another go?

                                          regards Martin

                                          The population of the planet is currently at its highest ever level, so are you saying that living standards must be at an all time low?

                                          Do you want to have another go?

                                          #630330
                                          SillyOldDuffer
                                          Moderator
                                            @sillyoldduffer
                                            Posted by blowlamp on 20/01/2023 13:36:42:

                                            Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 09:44:41:

                                            Posted by JA on 19/01/2023 09:28:26:

                                            Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 09:15:57:…

                                            The easiest and most predictable way to reduce energy comsumption would be to reduce the population.

                                            Be careful what you wish for!

                                            Before voting naively for death sentences, I advise one and all to make absolutely certain they aren't going to be on the list.

                                            Playing the Balloon Game, it's dangerous to assume anything, least of all that we will make the rules or be able to enforce them.

                                            Trouble is when load shedding becomes necessary, it's best to dump the heavy stuff first, closely followed by anything that doesn't help solve the problem. Be realistic – as individuals do we actually help solve problems, or just have strong opinions?

                                            As getting rid of unproductive pensioners in poor health would deliver major benefits, supporting extremists offering quick simple results might be a case of Turkeys voting for Christmas.

                                            And in an energy crisis, an angry majority looking for someone to blame will find boomers are right in the cross-hairs. Those unwisely flaunting gas-guzzling beliefs in a riot might end up swinging from a lamppost.

                                            sad

                                            Dave

                                            #630336
                                            blowlamp
                                            Participant
                                              @blowlamp
                                              Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 20/01/2023 16:55:29:

                                              Posted by blowlamp on 20/01/2023 13:36:42:

                                              Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 09:44:41:

                                              Posted by JA on 19/01/2023 09:28:26:

                                              Posted by Martin Kyte on 19/01/2023 09:15:57:…

                                              The easiest and most predictable way to reduce energy comsumption would be to reduce the population.

                                              Be careful what you wish for!

                                              Before voting naively for death sentences, I advise one and all to make absolutely certain they aren't going to be on the list.

                                              Playing the Balloon Game, it's dangerous to assume anything, least of all that we will make the rules or be able to enforce them.

                                              Trouble is when load shedding becomes necessary, it's best to dump the heavy stuff first, closely followed by anything that doesn't help solve the problem. Be realistic – as individuals do we actually help solve problems, or just have strong opinions?

                                              As getting rid of unproductive pensioners in poor health would deliver major benefits, supporting extremists offering quick simple results might be a case of Turkeys voting for Christmas.

                                              And in an energy crisis, an angry majority looking for someone to blame will find boomers are right in the cross-hairs. Those unwisely flaunting gas-guzzling beliefs in a riot might end up swinging from a lamppost.

                                              sad

                                              Dave

                                              Where did I say that I wanted population reduction?

                                              I just stated the obvious: Smaller population = less energy consumption.

                                              #630337
                                              Martin Kyte
                                              Participant
                                                @martinkyte99762
                                                Posted by blowlamp on 20/01/2023 16:30:17:

                                                Posted by Martin Kyte on 20/01/2023 16:03:07:

                                                Around the world as living standards go up the family size correspondingly decreases. The driver for this is if people feel more secure about their old age they don’t rely on a large number of children to support them. The side effect of this is there are less mouths to feed so the family is less poor.

                                                Drive down living standards and the birth rate will increase.

                                                Want to have another go?

                                                regards Martin

                                                 

                                                The population of the planet is currently at its highest ever level, so are you saying that living standards must be at an all time low?

                                                Do you want to have another go?

                                                No that’s not what I said. Birth rate inversely tracks with living standards in individual nations. Countries with low living standards which don’t include stuff like pensions and elderly care provision have high birth rates as people ensure their own old age by having many children. So you can have an affluent world with pockets of countries with high poverty rates and high birth rates.

                                                I agree with you that it is desirable to stabilise global population. It is also clear that in order to do so one must ensure the elderly across the word are cared for by the state, that they are confident that this will happen and you educate people especially women to show that their living standards actually increase by having smaller families.

                                                regards Martin

                                                Edited By Martin Kyte on 20/01/2023 17:30:00

                                                #630338
                                                JA
                                                Participant
                                                  @ja

                                                  Too many quotation lines-

                                                  The USA did not participate in the bribery attempts at reducing the birth rate in various countries over the three or so decades saying the only thing that would work was the education of women. I think they were right.

                                                  It appears that the global population is slowly falling. The immediate response in some of the responsible media was "who is going to look after the elderly?". We have not moved very far from the need, for some regimes, to have large families to provide more soldiers and mothers to give birth to yet more soldiers. A quick reduction in population difficult, ask the Chinese. There are extreme methods that would give good results, a limited nuclear war or the return of the Black Death.

                                                  Somehow I think Malthus is nigh. Some may disagree.

                                                  This subject shows the value of "The Tea Room".

                                                  JA

                                                  Written before I saw Martin's latest post.

                                                  Edited By JA on 20/01/2023 17:42:36

                                                  #630341
                                                  blowlamp
                                                  Participant
                                                    @blowlamp

                                                    All of this soon gets much more complicated if you factor in survival rate & death rate alongside the birth rate.

                                                    I would have thought a modern day person with lowered living standards would be less likely to reproduce, less likely to survive the hardship and therefore more likely to die before their time.

                                                    #630345
                                                    Paul Kemp
                                                    Participant
                                                      @paulkemp46892
                                                      Posted by Ady1 on 20/01/2023 14:34:49:

                                                      May not have been posted yet

                                                      Diesel engine on hydrogen

                                                      Not quite as new as the article claims it’s called pilot injection in other OEM / researchers parlance. There are a few applications of this in commercial service, at least one in marine. It seems to be most effective in the mid power range but does not completely eradicate NOx and SOx. Given all the hoops you have to jump through for marine on the H2 storage and on board distribution in terms of ventilation, monitoring and ex rated electrical equipment you may as well go the whole hog and remove the ICE. However it is giving opportunities for flag states and class to develop experience, confidence and rules for hydrogen and the big plus is it retains some flexibility on range and duty cycle so can be viewed as a useful transitional step to eventual tailpipe or net zero.

                                                      Paul.

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