Posted by Chris Mate on 13/06/2022 16:23:55:
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Now my experience was that the fibre works excellent for some years, then it gets older and older and start giving Age–intermittant problems….At this stage in the beginning, the scopes don't illustrate the problem clearly enough to make a new fibre replacement(Costly), so fibre faults are thrown back to techs on inside maintaining the equipment, where modules are replaced or tuned a bit, it may or may not help, its very confusing for all in the beginning of experiene with it. It escalates where problems start to cause total collapses of the entire system
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I'm always fascinated by the different ways there are of looking at the same problem.
Much of my career matches Chris's perspective, because me and my mates spent a lot of time 'squeezing the assets', basically putting off spending big money on major upgrades until the last possible moment. With hindsight it was a bad strategy, often throwing good money after bad, and forcing the system's users to put up with an unreliable service. Didn't matter, because other budgets took the hit and their managers didn't realise or didn't care they were bleeding money due to reduced productivity.
You might think the industry was concerned about ageing fibre, but they're not. Since fibre was introduced about 30 years ago it's developed considerably, but the main driver is more bandwidth, not keeping old networks going. I think they're right: whenever a technology is rapidly improving, the smart money takes advantage of next generation stuff as soon as it's affordable. The best solution to unreliable fibre networks is to rip them out out completely, and replace with up-to-date technology. It's faster, opens the door to new opportunities because it carries much more traffic, and is cheaper per byte. During most of the 19th century marine steam engines followed the same curve, shipowners running ten year old vessels struggled to compete with more efficient new ships and their better engines.
It's important to look constantly for the break even point: given it costs x billion to lay a 5000km fibre optic cable between Somerset and Nova Scotia, and income is limited by the capacity of the cable after n months, what's the profitable life of the cable, and when does repairing it become a waste of money? Potentially rather quickly! If you own a 10Gbs transatlantic cable installed in 2000, and a competitor installs a terabit cable in 2020, he will undercut you in a jiffy. The money made from a fully working cable might not pay it's keep when other suppliers have cheap capacity to spare, and offer your customers cut-price deals.
The people who run technology see one side of the story, the people who pay for it see another. Quite easy to think all is well at the engineering level when the business is in terrible financial trouble, and vice versa. Many organisations had money in the bank, but were blissfully unaware their technology base was about to implode, and that they were dead men walking. Failure to manage change is very dangerous.
Dave