Fallacies

[Michael GilliganParticipant @michaelgilligan61133]

Ref. __ https://www.model-engineer.co.uk/forums/topic/this-is-the-worst-site-possible/#post-701960

 

Kiwi Bloke made specific, and very pertinent, reference to the Sunk Cost Fallacy … but I think we might explore the various fallacies that have contributed to the present situation:

I will start the ball rolling with two:

1. The belief that this forum exists for the benefit of its members.
2. The belief that having approximately 48k registered members is a good thing.

Both of these [held by different factions] are delusional

Mortons is a business, not a charity, and the forum exists to stimulate interest in the products and services that provide the income-stream for Mortons. We [the active forum members] are, one might say, the lubricant in the machine.

To attract custom for its printing/publishing/advertising services, Mortons would ‘like to think’ that it is offering an audience of 48k

 

The awful truth would appear to be that there are less than 100 active participants, and the database is carrying a lot of dead weight [think inertia, not momentum]

A cold, hard, analysis would probably kill the forum and also question the viability of the magazines.

My suggestion [based on what little has been disclosed] would be to first cleanse the database of its imaginary members, who have never contributed to a discussion. … This should make the forum software more agile

Then develop the forum to suit the preferences of the active members.

< Use them, or you will lose them >

This needs doing promptly, but the Sunk Costs will then be all-too-evident.

Discuss or Ignore

MichaelG.

 

[JasonBModerator @jasonb]

Michael, the cleansing has already been done, it was more like 300,000 member on the old forum.

Take the posts today by someone who registered some time ago and has only just made their first post. Should they have had their account wiped out?

[NealebParticipant @nealeb]

I would suggest that your figures (and I don’t dispute them) are not particularly relevant as you have interpreted them. 48K members tells us nothing of the number actually reading the site. 100 regular “posters” – not untypical of many forums (or fora, according to taste). All we can conclude is that the number of readers is somewhere between the two figures, and that assumes that all casual readers are registered. Not sure if this is true.

Neither do I think that “only 100” regular posters is a real measure of anything. I’m trying to be objective here and imply no criticism of anyone, but it seems to be that in any large group there will be a small number that talk a lot and a lot that sit back and listen. Look at the club membership that turn up to club meetings (assuming that enough do to give a statistically significant result!) and you will probably see the same thing. I suspect that the reluctance to contribute is even stronger online than in real life because it’s only too easy to respond to a post in a way that sounds critical without that being the intention and it is difficult for the original poster to continue posting it they feel, however wrongly, that they are being attacked. Or just ignored. This is purely anecdotal but my impression is that this site, like many others, has a relatively small number of posters who generate active responses and discussion and quite a few who have posted a few times and not again. It takes quite a lot to make some people stick their head over the parapet if they feel that someone will take pot-shots at them if they do!

Personally, I come to this forum to mainly learn and to a lesser extent be entertained. In my local club I talk a lot about CNC, for example, because I am one of the most experienced CNC users and CNC builders in that community. But in this forum I tend to keep my mouth shut because there are already active contributors on such topics. What do I have to add here? I’m sure that there are plenty like me.

As I said, I am not criticising any individuals here because without those expert and regular posters, I would not be achieving my aim to learn. But contribute, sometimes in the face of a “my way or the wrong way” response? That’s another matter!

[Michael GilliganParticipant @michaelgilligan61133]

Good responses, both, thank you

My number of 48k was plucked from a page on this site, but [for whatever reason] the statistics no longer appear to be shared.

I was obviously unaware of the old figure of 300,000 … but my point about the fallacy stands … Mortons ‘would like to think’ … simply because it gives them credibility with potential advertisers, etc.

Fallacies are many and varied, and depend greatly on the viewer’s perspective: That’s why external consultants and analysts are so useful … They are ‘detached’ from the project and can make an objective assessment.

I don’t expect to ever have sight of it, but I would love to read the specification document for this migration.

.

Keep it coming … I just wanted to trigger some serious discussion

Who knows ? … someone with a controlling-interest may even be quietly monitoring the forum activity.

MichaelG.

.

Edit: __ Just managed to find my old post from October, with the screen-shot

https://www.model-engineer.co.uk/forums/topic/comments-constructive-on-the-new-forum-software/page/17/#post-682333

 

[BazyleParticipant @bazyle]

Does 48k inactive users make any difference to the speed if they are not trying to download pages? It has always seemed odd to me that servers will sit on a page request for seconds for no apparent reason. It can also be down to software writers making one action dependent on getting a response from a server and just sitting around waiting. Think about why your mega fast computer takes minutes to boot up if it has the capacity to read war and peace ten times a second.

[Bazyle]

On Bazyle Said:

Does 48k inactive users make any difference to the speed if they are not trying to download pages? …

That would depend upon how the database is structured, and how it is being searched.

We know that response-times for NOT logged-in visits are quicker … presumably because they only get to view pre-structured data.

Logged-in ‘interactive’ engagement involves refreshing those results.

MichaelG.

[Dave HalfordParticipant @davehalford22513]

Yeah, but no, but, when the mag was pre internet you wouldn’t have based the success or failure on the numbers contributing on the letters page. It still seems to be the way today – more readers than writers.

If you want an example of slow death try CentecMillingMachines@groups.io    This had a quite healthy posting rate and loads of documents and photos when on Yahoo groups, but all it needed was a change to a disinterested owner (wrong word) who couldn’t be bothered to moderate and then the switch to IO and you can see what’s left traffic wise.

Our current Centec poster had only 2 responses.

[paul raynerParticipant @paulrayner36054]

Hands up! I very rarely log on, or post on this site, I do use this site a lot among others for information, entertainment & just to see what other people are doing not just in this country, but around the world. When I do log on, It is either to ask for help/advice from people with much more experience/knowledge than me, In Fact you yourself have helped me in the past Micheal.  Or offer help myself which unfortunately is rare with my limited experience.

I do think 48K seems quite a small number considering the members are worldwide, I also think that it is give and take with the publishers, yes they have provided a platform free of charge to us, the users to get together and share information & help each other out, But it does come at a cost to them, and has to be paid for somehow.

regards

paul

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Advertisers aren’t very interested in number of members.  The stats they look at are page views and retention times.

There is an understanding that the website plays a role in keeping a hobby that is in real danger of fragmentation (so many different subsets of creative hobbies these days) to have a unified identity. Model engineering and the magazines have always been symbiotic in the UK.

With the loss of exhibitions the forum provides a route for those who are not club members to engage in a model engineering community.

 

[JAParticipant @ja]

I think 48k is vastly inflated. Whether it had an influence on Mortons buying ME & MEW one has no idea.

Mortons main business model appears to be buying established niche magazines, increasing the advertising and living off the avertising income. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. However they need to attract the advertisers hence the forum. They do organise classic car and bike shows and we still need shows even if the dealers think they don’t.

All the advertisers trade through the internet but they need to get their presence known. Ideally this would be at a show or word of mouth. Both are difficult. So they advertise in the best places they can.

So we are the third side of the triangle. A good, vibrant forum attracts a lot of chatter and many casual visitors. The more knowledgeable its members are the better. Likewise it should not be too specific in its subjects (including the “Tea Room” so increasing the readership.

I was going to post a true rant but was logged on immediately and had not further difficulties so the above simplistic bit the rubbish was posted instead.

To who ever did it, thanks for solving the logon problems. I hope that this is not premature.

JA

[Kiwi BlokeParticipant @kiwibloke62605]

Another fallacy, described and popularised by Daniel Kahneman, is the ‘planning fallacy’. I think his use of the word ‘fallacy’ is misleading, because what he describes is really a delusion or cognitive bias, not a logical fallacy. But, be that as it may, it’s now become fairly well known. It’s all around us: it’s about the inside view of a project or problem being over-optimistic. (‘Inside view’ being the view from within the project group, etc.). The difficulty and the projected time it would take, and its expense are underestimated. The outside view can provide abundant, objective information about comparable projects, which should temper the optimism of the inside view, but – assuming it is even sought – such information is ignored or dismissed, and the possibility of unpredicted disruptions is not allowed for: “It can’t possibly take more than a couple of weeks”, “What could possibly go wrong?”, etc.. Thus we get the high-profile budget blow-outs, and massive delays. But it’s also why our little workshop projects take forever – and probably why we should be wary of accepting “Can you just…” jobs.

[BountyboyParticipant @bountyboy]

Hello,

I’ve read about the issues other forum members have been experiencing. I use an iPad (gen 6) and MacBook Pro (2016) to access the forum and for what ever reason I have no problem logging or staying logged in and accessing posts, I just get a two second delay before the page appears.
I can echo the comment of a previous member, I also don’t post very often as I don’t have the knowledge or experience but I can usually find the answers to my questions on the.
I do hope the forum continues as I’ve found it both invaluable and entertaining.

Here’s to a more active forum in 2024

[Nealeb]

On Nealeb Said:

… Neither do I think that “only 100” regular posters is a real measure of anything. I’m trying to be objective here and imply no criticism of anyone, but it seems to be that in any large group there will be a small number that talk a lot and a lot that sit back and listen. Look at the club membership that turn up to club meetings (assuming that enough do to give a statistically significant result!) and you will probably see the same thing. I suspect that the reluctance to contribute is even stronger online than in real life because it’s only too easy to respond to a post in a way that sounds critical without that being the intention and it is difficult for the original poster to continue posting it they feel, however wrongly, that they are being attacked. Or just ignored. This is purely anecdotal but my impression is that this site, like many others, has a relatively small number of posters who generate active responses and discussion and quite a few who have posted a few times and not again. It takes quite a lot to make some people stick their head over the parapet if they feel that someone will take pot-shots at them if they do!

Personally, I come to this forum to mainly learn and to a lesser extent be entertained. In my local club I talk a lot about CNC, for example, because I am one of the most experienced CNC users and CNC builders in that community. But in this forum I tend to keep my mouth shut because there are already active contributors on such topics. What do I have to add here? I’m sure that there are plenty like me.

…

I have just re-read your post, Neale … and realise that I did not respond to that point ^^^

I am of course just making this up … in an attempt to guess at the significant features [let’s be pretentious and call it a working hypothesis] and prompt useful discussion.

My hypothesis is that the activity of 100 or so participants is what lubricates the machine … and that machine is a marketing mechanism !

Therefore, the forum needs to have a sufficiently good look&feel to make those participants happy to play their part.

By comparison, the passing viewers and the lurkers are the audience [fascinated by the  machine in action] … and let’s be honest: They are the potential revenue-stream for the advertisers.

If the ‘active participants’ lose interest, the machine will ultimately seize.

< steps down from soap-box >

MichaelG.

[Author]

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