Malcolm,
You are pursuing a lost cause I am afraid. In the perfect world of Dave there is plenty of generating capacity to support the demand of customers transitioning to electricity from other forms of energy, the grid has plenty of capacity to distribute this energy and once everyone has moved from any kind of fossil fuel it will all be as cheap as chips.
Any mention of practical or real world barriers to the process will result in you being labelled as a climate denier irrespective of any acknowledgement that a transition from fossil fuels to alternatives is a good plan.
A quote from one of Dave’s recent posts really made me chuckle.
“Fortunately given humanities need to cope with future challenges, old engineers are often badly out-of-date! When old engineer tells you something is impossible today, or in the next few decades, he’s likely to be wrong! His understanding of the art of the possible now is flawed, and he has no idea what’s cooking in Research and Development.”
Not that there is no truth in that statement but Dave obviously sets himself apart and even above the old engineers and even comment from people currently involved with renewable energy and has kept himself intimately current on latest developments to be able to speak with such authority on the subject.
Paul.
Paul makes stuff up to suit his argument! Very bad Paul, it means you can’t be trusted. For example I’ve never said anything that justifies this libel:
‘In the perfect world of Dave there is plenty of generating capacity to support the demand of customers transitioning to electricity from other forms of energy, the grid has plenty of capacity to distribute this energy and once everyone has moved from any kind of fossil fuel it will all be as cheap as chips.’
Nonsense – elsewhere on the forum I’ve said the exact opposite. I do not believe in a perfect world. There isn’t enough generating capacity, nor is the grid* ready, and, though renewable energy will be cheaper than fossils in the long run, it will cost big money to set up in the first place. Instead there is a problem than needs fixing.
In this thread I said: ‘It’s bad news. Oil and gas are within 30 years of becoming a permanent shortage. And at the same time the evidence for Climate Change has grown for 40+ years, whilst nothing to gainsay it has appeared in the same period. Both problems can be tackled, but only if we get on with it. The world is changing whether we like it or not and choosing to disbelieve unpleasant facts never helps.’
Also unjustified is: ‘Dave obviously sets himself apart and even above the old engineers …‘. Rubbish, I am an old engineer! What I’m warning against is relying on out-of-date knowledge rather than current best practice and what’s in the pipeline. Nothing personal.
I don’t mind being challenged provided critics stick to the facts. Paul breaks that rule by criticising what he imagines I mean rather than what I actually said! Everything Paul and I have posted on the forum is available if anyone wishes to confirms who said what and when.
I don’t recall Paul offering any answers to the fossil fuel problem. How about it Paul, what’s your plan? I hope it’s not “wait until all the old people are dead”, or another assault on my alleged personality!
🙂
Dave
* the distribution part of the grid is OK, the problem is connecting new generators to it, and upgrading the substation to homes part.
Dave,
Firstly my apologies if I have misinterpreted or misunderstood your points, that is not a problem I usually suffer but maybe I just don’t manage to follow your train of thought / or the way you convey it. However the assertion that I make things up to suit my arguments is stretching things a little when I have previously (in other threads) provided references to support my statements. I do try to use credible sources but none of us have the the ability to precisely verify a lot of the information available other than cross checking sources which I do try to do. As a point of order I made no inference on your agreement or disagreement with JSO I merely agreed with a challenge on your emphasised interpretation of a quoted statement.
The fact that oil and gas reserves are a finite resource I don’t think has been disputed by anyone and certainly not by me. Therefore there is nothing to be gained by continually restating it.
At least three times in this thread alone you have alluded that progress to transition is slow and we need to get on with it. I do not completely agree progress has been slow in the UK compared to other nations, there is plenty of evidence quoted before, that considering the magnitude of the problem and with multiple motives, actually quite good progress is being made. There are many factors that may influence whether this could be done faster but when you consider energy is a fundamental to the function of the nation in so many areas, it is a delicate balance. Facts are there has been significant progress in adopting renewable energy (% of renewable energy of the national total demand), there has been government focus on driving this and only recently we turned off our last coal fired power plant. If the current progress is not fast enough for you, what do you think the deadline for a complete transition to 100% renewable energy should be for the UK? Let’s just concentrate on the UK here over which we (government) have direct control and ignore for a minute the international picture, just give me a year.
Then can I examine your last statement “* the distribution part of the grid is OK, the problem is connecting new generators to it, and upgrading the substation to homes part.”. That is a direct quote and to illustrate where I may be misunderstanding I will lay out my interpretation by breaking it down. “The distribution part of the grid is OK” I agree that for now that is true as the annual demand for power has reduced in recent years so that must give a little headroom in the existing 275kv and 400kv network (that headroom is not necessarily proportional to the reduced annual consumption as the demand needs to be considered relative to time). However, from the National Grid’s own statements regarding its 17 major infrastructure upgrades on its website we have the following;
“The UK’s electricity grid was originally built to connect electricity generated in power stations from fossil fuels, such as coal from the North and Midlands of England and South Wales.
As the UK moves away from fossil fuels and increases clean energy generation, we’ll all be using more electricity than ever before. Demand for electricity is expected to increase by 50% by 2035 and double by 2050, as we decarbonise the energy that’s used for things like heating and transport.
So significant new infrastructure is needed to connect this clean energy from where it’s generated to where it’s needed.”
Also;
“In some areas we’ll be able to upgrade the infrastructure that already exists. In other areas, we’ll need to install new wires, cables and pylons.
All of this is to ensure that there’s sufficient capacity to transport the required amounts of electricity, to make sure everyone in England and Wales has access to clean, secure energy.”
https://www.nationalgrid.com/the-great-grid-upgrade/whats-happening
Now you can interpret these statements in two ways, one being the way you present that the additional capacity is only needed to connect the new renewable sources. However, if you look at the 17 major projects you can also glean that actually the existing grid will not have the capacity to transmit the anticipated demand of double today’s value by 2050 and at least one of the projects (I haven’t looked at them all) illustrate that. You have to consider that National Grid like any corporate entity cannot really tell lies but will present the information in the best possible light but by looking at ALL the information the true picture emerges. No conspiracy theory.
It is in fact a requirement to upgrade the whole system including the local level. I have previously presented broad examples of both in my actual experience of trying to get power to various locations including one example where it is not just a local upgrade to a substation that is required but that substation upgrade is limited in capacity by the capacity of the grid feeding into it. I have not made any of that up!
So simple question, are you asserting the main HV grid backbone is fit for purpose through to 2050 without upgrade, except to connect new energy sources?
Dependent on your answer to that, can you accept that actually the condition of the main backbone now despite keeping the lights on is in some circumstances / areas already holding back progress?
I am not looking for a long explanation or justification or political answer to make sure I understand where you are on this simple yes or no’s will do.
Lastly I don’t think any of us can present a definitive plan to achieve a complete all area 100% transition to renewable energy. There is no single magic bullet to replace fossil fuels and the solution will be a mix of renewables. My personal focus (stated previously but maybe you missed it then) is in the maritime sector for passenger and freight transport on short sea and inland waterway routes. Like everything else electric propulsion plays a part either through battery storage and green power charging or by hydrogen fuel cell combined with batteries. The latter gives tailpipe zero but the green credibility of the hydrogen depends on source production. Because of the poor TRL and maturity of both equipment and regulation it’s not possible to move directly from MGO tomorrow so part of the journey requires hybrid solutions. Sadly all the solutions and greener “fuels” are much more expensive and despite the customer wanting green solutions the fact is currently they are unwilling or actually unable to pay! My only view on road transport is from the personal perspective and the fact there is no affordable vehicle available that meets my needs (I have made that clear in the past too). On national energy supply / security the main solutions will be a combination of wind, solar and because the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun shine, nuclear and stored reserve. How the stored reserve is achieved for me is not yet clear with the current available technologies. How well the “smart grid” will work at scale for me is yet to be proven, especially customer tolerance to “shared EV storage”
All this is a significant drift from the original post that kicked off this thread!
Best regards,
Paul.