Cheap EV’s on the way

[VicParticipant @vic]

Getting back to EV’s, well sort of … I recently saw this on FB 🤣

[mgnbukParticipant @mgnbuk]

I’m confused again Paul.

You seem rather argumentative for the sake of it to me, Dave.

Grid capacity issues are well reported and are apparently responsible for the slow roll-out of renewable generation projects around the country, as well as the equally slow roll-out of improved car charging facilties. This has resulted in the bizzare situation of service station charging facilities being operated using diesel generators as they could not get a timely connection to the grid.

You still have not responed to my query as to how all these zero emission electric cars will be manufactured with out access to oil / oil byproducts / petrochemicals.

Nigel B.

[not done it yetParticipant @notdoneityet]

You still have not responed to my query as to how all these zero emission electric cars will be manufactured with out access to oil / oil byproducts / petrochemicals.

Nigel,

Neither I nor anyone else should be worrying about items manufactured from oil.  It is simply the burning of these global assets – creating vast amounts of the ‘greenhouse gas’ CO2 and polluting the air (particularly that breathed by urban dwellers) with toxic chemicals – that is the real problem.

Of course, some would either not understand that, or just use it as an empty negative argument re fossil fuels usage.

[NealebParticipant @nealeb]

Surely if we stop “wasting” oil by just burning it, there will be plenty to use into the future for things like insulation, etc, with the prospect of recycling at least part of it to make it go even further? Never understood the argument that says that if we stop using fossil products as fuel, somehow they will become unavailable as raw material for the plastics industry when the opposite seems more likely.

Oh, and estimates of charging capacity needed should surely be based on likely average daily consumption and not battery capacity, as appeared to be done earlier.

[Paul KempParticipant @paulkemp46892]

SOD,

If you are confused maybe you should address my questions and stop introducing irrelevant issues?  I never claimed there was a link between oil and electricity prices, it was you who introduced the price of oil.  There is a link (tenuous and potentially false) between natural gas prices and electricity.  If you haven’t heard the justifications for the massive electricity price rises since the start of the Ukraine war from media, govt and electricity suppliers then you have had your head in a bucket!  I state this is now potentially false as the wholesale cost of gas is now lower than in 2004 and provided a source as reference (other sources available) plus the component of the total generated by this mythical hugely expensive gas is relatively small!

My reference to “Grid” capacity refers the the whole distribution network – national HV backbone and the local LV distribution.  Fine, you want to apply semantics and separate the two but the fact remains you can’t take more from the latter than is going into the former. The National Grid’s own website in quite simple terms states they have responsibility for distribution of electricity from point of generation to point of consumption.  Fine if you want to break this down into transmission entities, DNO’s, IDNO’s, and ICP’s then please substitute “distribution network” for my prior references to “Grid” if that makes it clearer for you.

You then introduce the price of connections, I have made no reference to the price or complexity of achieving a connection in the future, I have merely stated that with the current infrastructure it is often impossible to get a connection of the required power at all!  Because there is no capacity!  In several instances we have been told there could possibly be capacity in 2030 – no guarantees!  Interestingly a DNO is legally obliged to provide a connection but there is no time scale or capacity guarantee in the legislation that I am aware of, so it’s academic! Would be hard to force someone to supply something they cant get!

My fundamental issue is the claim that conversion of all cars to EV’s will only result in additional @ 10% increase in load.  I have presented a simple example using figures from a forum member for daily EV power consumption and established figures that you can verify for average household usage that illustrates the increase would be closer to 50%.  You have stated the information and figures do not support this but have failed to present any figures that back this up!  If you want a clue I suspect this is based on a forecast of a continuation in the recent downturn in annual electricity usage which will be a combination of price, people are turning things off because they can’t afford to run them and the implementation of low energy devices such as LED’s so further decreases generally will offset the EV load.

It is also immaterial as to how cheaply you can generate wind and solar energy as it feeds into a market where the user pays the same as the more expensive dirty stuff.  The green and the brown all go into the same pipe it’s down to your deal with your supplier as to what you pay.  It just means there is an even greater profit margin to be exploited and generally not by the wind farm operator especially if they are on a contract for difference.  If you want to be less confused go and read up on contracts for difference for renewable energy, have a look at RTFO (not strictly electricity) research the relationship between transmission providers, DNO’s etc and the bid / buy process for securing generating capacity.  Lastly apply some of your self acclaimed critical analytical thinking to the 10% claim.

You seem hell bent to brand anyone who questions your logic as a “fossil fuel lover”.  I have already stated I have been professionally involved with several green / decarbonisation initiatives and driving solutions to the problems we have encountered.  I am also in contact with many other projects both in the UK and internationally that have the same issues.

I freely admit in my leisure time I contradict these initiatives by driving a diesel 4×4 purely because there is nothing in the EV range of vehicles that can tow my 2700kg trailer legally into and out of muddy fields in my price bracket (sub 10k) that can do a 600m round trip without recharging (when I am heading home on a Sunday night after a weekend burning coal in heritage machinery the last thing I want to do is be sat in a services for an hour or two paying premium prices for electricity).  I don’t see my personal habits changing anytime soon unless coal is banned completely or EV technology becomes so economically attractive and I am guaranteed fast charging with little detriment to journey times.

Paul.

[Paul Kemp]

On Paul Kemp Said:

 

My fundamental issue is the claim that conversion of all cars to EV’s will only result in additional @ 10% increase in load.

I shall explain it in simple terms:-
Power station, grid and local distribution are all sized for peak load. For generation, this means that more expensive or  flexible sources are idled when there is insufficient demand, but available for those times when they are economic. British demand tends to fluctuate between a minimum of 20GW and a maximum of 45GW. As I type, it’s a tad over 28GW. Peak consumption tends to occur at 08:00, 12:00 and 16:00-20:00. Anyone with any choice, will charge their car when power is cheap, using a tariff that allows for variable pricing. Since those times are when other demand is lowest, the effect is to broaden and flatten the demand curve, but not significantly raise the peak demand. Why charge your car at £0.35/kWh when you can charge it at £0.07p/kWh? Just the same as not buying petrol or Diesel from the motorway service area when you can buy from the local supermarket at a far better price (only the case for electricity is vastly more compelling).

 

There, you have it. Simples 🙂

[Paul Kemp]

On Paul Kemp Said:

SOD,

If you are confused maybe you should address my questions and stop introducing irrelevant issues?

My case is that your questions are based on irrelevant assumptions.   I ask everyone to re-read the thread!

 

I never claimed there was a link between oil and electricity prices, it was you who introduced the price of oil.

I was correcting Paul’s error in #748933, were he claimed ‘Yes, electricity is a commodity that is traded, however you can’t equate it to oil or even natural gas. Both of those are a global market where electricity is a regional and national market. ‘ Wrong because so much electricity is generated from fossil fuels.  When a UK consumer buys electricity, the price depends on Natural Gas bought on the global market.

 

There is a link (tenuous and potentially false) between natural gas prices and electricity.  If you haven’t heard the justifications for the massive electricity price rises since the start of the Ukraine war from media, govt and electricity suppliers then you have had your head in a bucket!  I state this is now potentially false as the wholesale cost of gas is now lower than in 2004 and provided a source as reference (other sources available) plus the component of the total generated by this mythical hugely expensive gas is relatively small!

Again, Paul misunderstands cause and effect.   Before Ukraine, Europe bought large quantities of Natural Gas from Russia because it was cheaper than other sources.  Delivery requires expensive pipelines and bulk-carriers.  Mr Putin bet that the West would be unable to do without Russian gas on the assumption that we would be unable to link to other sources quickly.   Actually, the West chose to take the pain temporarily whilst the necessary infrastructure changes were made, causing the wholesale price of gas (and oil) to rise rapidly.   Now the necessary infrastructure changes have been made. the price of gas has dropped, reducing the pressure on oil.    But, switching sources doesn’t mean that wholesale prices will stay low forever.   The UK tapped into our strategic gas reserves in Morecombe Bay and the North Sea.   When these are gone, the UK is forced to buy expensive foreign gas, that itself is depleting.

My reference to “Grid” capacity refers the the whole distribution network – national HV backbone and the local LV distribution.

Yes, and that was misleading.  The thread was addressing local costs, into which Paul introduced a misleading measure.  He suggests  requesting a 2MW connection indicates the state of the grid, and it doesn’t!    Paul, I think, is trying to prove the grid is too difficult/expensive to fix.    I say, it’s in better shape than Paul believes.  I do not claim the system is ready to go without upgrading it. Specifically:   the local distribution network is man enough ‘as is’ to slow charge EVs overnight, but upgrades would be needed if large numbers of unwise customers insisted on fast-charging at home; with many exceptions, the national distribution network is in good order.  Some beefing up necessary;   the big problem is connecting new sources to the grid, which requires substantial new infrastructure.

 

Fine, you want to apply semantics and separate the two but the fact remains you can’t take more from the latter than is going into the former.

I insist on it.   Engineers know that failing to understand the problem wastes time and money.

 

The National Grid’s own website in quite simple terms states they have responsibility for distribution of electricity from point of generation to point of consumption.  Fine if you want to break this down into transmission entities, DNO’s, IDNO’s, and ICP’s then please substitute “distribution network” for my prior references to “Grid” if that makes it clearer for you.

I’m clear Paul is the muddled one!

You then introduce the price of connections, I have made no reference to the price or complexity of achieving a connection in the future, I have merely stated that with the current infrastructure it is often impossible to get a connection of the required power at all!  Because there is no capacity!

Paul introduced the price of connections!!!  And I disagree with Paul’s conclusion ” Because there is no capacity!“.  He confuses capacity at the point of connection with the capacity of the system as a whole.  They are different.   Policy based on this kind of generalisation is dangerous.   I agree with Paul in that the issue is real for some customers, and requires investigation, but not that it’s a show-stopper.

 

….

My fundamental issue is the claim that conversion of all cars to EV’s will only result in additional @ 10% increase in load.  I have presented a simple example using figures from a forum member for daily EV power consumption and established figures that you can verify for average household usage that illustrates the increase would be closer to 50%.  You have stated the information and figures do not support this but have failed to present any figures that back this up!

 

Not me Paul!  One of your other critics I think!

…

It is also immaterial as to how cheaply you can generate wind and solar energy as it feeds into a market where the user pays the same as the more expensive dirty stuff.  The green and the brown all go into the same pipe it’s down to your deal with your supplier as to what you pay.

Well, the entire Capitalist system is vulnerable to that abuse.   It’s why the UK has Regulators like OfGem, who I agree aren’t as effective as they should be.  OfGem is up for review at the moment because their remit was set when electricity was privatised and coal was still king.  The energy market is very different today!  However, Paul can’t make the possibility of commercial abuse part of a case against EVs and renewables because fossil fuels and nuclear work in exactly the same way.

 

…

You seem hell bent to brand anyone who questions your logic as a “fossil fuel lover”.  I have already stated I have been professionally involved with several green / decarbonisation initiatives and driving solutions to the problems we have encountered.

The hallmark of a “fossil fuel lover” is someone who wishes to maintain the status-quo with erroneous assumptions and won’t address the issue of what happens when these finite natural sources dry up.  Apologies if that’s not you Paul!

Gas, oil and coal have been cheap for over a century, but that happy state is coming to an end, party over! Expect the cost of oil to sky-rocket over the next 30 years, followed closely by gas because God isn’t making any more.   Although Coal is good for about 300 years, it won’t save Internal Combustion motoring as we know it because petrol/diesel made from coal is horribly expensive.

To my mind the advantages of switching to renewable energy far outweigh the disadvantages.   I don’t claim domestic energy bills will fall,  or any kind of utopia, or that the conversion will be transparently painless.

 

…

 

I don’t see my personal habits changing anytime soon unless coal is banned completely or EV technology becomes so economically attractive and I am guaranteed fast charging with little detriment to journey times.

Unless something radical happens, like Hydrogen, the choice may be between EV or not travelling at all!   Will people really refuse to travel in the absence of ‘guaranteed fast charging’, when slow charging is available?

 

Paul.

Finally, though I hope some of the small-c conservative views expressed on the forum don’t represent UK thinking as a whole, it’s possible they do!

The title of this Topic is “Cheap EV’s on the Way”,  with Vic reporting the arrival of an $11000 Chinese BEV.     Not ‘fake news’.  It appears whilst Western opinion has resisted change, the Chinese have embraced it. Affordable EVs.  Best batteries in the world for safety, capacity and charge rate.  Huge choice of rechargers, up to 470kW units.  Looks very much to me as if Western automotive edge has been lost, with our lot failing to hit the price-point due to dithering.

During the 19th Century the British were noted for innovation.   By WW1, Americans noted that British industry were reluctant to change anything, and proudly rubbed our noses in their famous ‘can do’ attitude,.  Today, American ‘Can Do’ has faded too, and the flame has passed to the Far East.  No doubt China will lose momentum too, but for the time being they are certainly far more up for change than we are.  Industry being brutally competitive makes slow reactions to change very risky.  Instinctive small-c conservatism may feel safe, but it often leads to bad outcomes.   When British Leyland was created by merging BMH, then Britains largest car maker, and Leyland Motors, ‘Lord Stokes was horrified to find that BMH had no plans to replace the elderly designs in its portfolio. Also, BMH’s design efforts immediately prior to the merger had focused on unfortunate niche market models such as the Austin Maxi (which was underdeveloped and with an appearance hampered by using the doors from the larger Austin 1800) and the Austin 3-litre, a car with no discernible place in the market.  The lack of attention to the development of new mass-market models meant that BMH had nothing in the way of new models in the pipeline to compete effectively with popular rivals such as Ford’s Escort and Cortina.’    BMH’s failure to prepare for the future saddled British Leyland with a problem that brought them down too!   Sins of the father…
Dave

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

I still think Chevrolets are better than Fords. Regardless.

[Grindstone CowboyParticipant @grindstonecowboy]

Just seen that Canada are implementing a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, in line with the USA. The EU are looking at “up to” 36.3%.

Rob

[Clock polisherParticipant @clockpolisher]

Good afternoon,

I wish that you would all get back on topic and talk about model engineering.

Go and be a politician if you want to alter the world.

regards,

David (bored now)

 

[Mark Rand]

On Mark Rand Said:

On Paul Kemp Said:

 

My fundamental issue is the claim that conversion of all cars to EV’s will only result in additional @ 10% increase in load.

I shall explain it in simple terms:-
Power station, grid and local distribution are all sized for peak load. For generation, this means that more expensive or  flexible sources are idled when there is insufficient demand, but available for those times when they are economic. British demand tends to fluctuate between a minimum of 20GW and a maximum of 45GW. As I type, it’s a tad over 28GW. Peak consumption tends to occur at 08:00, 12:00 and 16:00-20:00. Anyone with any choice, will charge their car when power is cheap, using a tariff that allows for variable pricing. Since those times are when other demand is lowest, the effect is to broaden and flatten the demand curve, but not significantly raise the peak demand. Why charge your car at £0.35/kWh when you can charge it at £0.07p/kWh? Just the same as not buying petrol or Diesel from the motorway service area when you can buy from the local supermarket at a far better price (only the case for electricity is vastly more compelling).

 

There, you have it. Simples 🙂

Mark, thank you and well done, I agree with all your comments.  My only point of contention / concern is there is a general drive to flatten the curve that is only really just (relatively) starting to be exploited with the smart meter incentives to the consumer of lower price in periods of low demand.  The drive of changing energy usage habits by hitting the pocket is undoubtably a strong motivator and is already hitting overall total usage as well as peak demand.  However I still doubt that transferring all the energy usage currently covered by petroleum product to electricity, combined with redistributing existing load to periods of lower demand will ultimately limit the rise in peak demand to 10%.  If the price incentive is completely successful all it will ultimately do is move the existing peaks to different times of the day.  However as that is heavily dependent on human behaviour I don’t see an accurate way to forecast the result.  So I will be continue to be sceptical of the 10% forecast and if I am still around in another 20 years when the result will be clear who knows it may be less than 10%!

SOD, if you were confused, I am now completely confused by your latest.  One point though if you can’t recognise that lack of capacity at point of connection is limiting progress and also artificially limiting demand on the whole system your logic is flawed.  If you have a 12” water main to your house and you only have one 1/8” bore tap, sure the demand on the supply is limited as is your ability to fill the   The reliance on fossil fuel for electricity isn’t that huge, it’s less than 50% and if you include nuclear even less.

David (clockpolisher) I agree, I am bored with this too now.  Just spent another 6hrs on a viable solution to a restricted electricity supply that doesn’t involve a stand alone diesel generator so going back to the shed to do something useful!

Paul.

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