Posted by Chris Crew on 28/01/2021 23:26:24:
… After thirty years constant use absolutely nothing came out, not a drop of water or anything else for that matter, so I replaced the drain plug and expect the compressor to be still going strong long after me!
So, what are we to make of this? The thread opens with a burst compressor tank:

And then Chris says his compressor is fine after 30 years of neglect and he expects it to last longer than him!
What's going on?
The problem is human beings are bad at assessing risk. Unless the consequences are bleeding obvious we don't get it! We understand it's unwise to sit in the bath with an electric fire balanced on our knees, but might reject the seriousness of Covid because the streets aren't littered with corpses. What virus, what problem?
And there are many risks where personal experience is almost irrelevant because the risk is statistical, only hurting a percentage. At least a thousand cases have to be analysed to understand what's going on. Smoking is a good example: comparing smokers with non-smokers by the million clearly shows – on average – that non-smokers live 10 years longer, while smokers are about 20 times more likely to die of cancer, bronchitis and emphysema, and 4 times more likely to die of heart disease. Whilst the statistics tell the awful truth, individual smokers don't see it. It takes years to do the damage, not everyone is affected, and we foolishly trust personal experience. This allows addicts to argue, 'My granny smoked 80 a day until she was run over by a tram aged 95' without realising the evidence is valueless unless compared with millions of other life experiences.
The range of possibilities often follows the bell curve of a normal distribution. This example is of academic performance. Given a year's worth of school-children, their exam results will look like this:
The same shaped curve likely covers the burst compressor and Chris's experience. The probability of a neglected compressor lasting 30 years is low and so also is the probability of tank bursting. Both are possible, but neither is likely. They are rare events on opposite sides of the curve, special cases. Most compressors sit in the middle: they aren't in good nick after 30 years, nor are they likely to spectacularly go pop during normal usage.
Owners can change their position under the curve for good and bad. Regular maintenance is good, but I suggest extending the life of an elderly compressor is asking for trouble. Designers know a great deal more than us, such as the type of steel used, calculated and actual burst pressures, the expected life of the equipment (in years and operating cycles), safety factors, corrosion resistance, and much else. Big difference between confidence and knowing. When it comes to safety it ain't smart to rely on luck!
Dave
Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 29/01/2021 10:38:38