So altogether a complex set of interleaved problems raising the awkward question of will people get about in, say, thirty years time, or will society return to something like 100 years ago when most people didn’t go very far very often, and then by rail or bus.
Will the recovery be full, however that’s measured, or to some patchy, partial level based on very few manufacturers?
Indeed, except I think there will be trouble ‘getting about’ rather sooner than in 30 years. At the moment, electric is the best technical option, despite range problems.
Hydrogen has considerable promise but the issue is safety, and it being a difficult to liquefy gas makes it hard to get enough weight into a vehicle, and leaks are scary! Petrol heads might be enthused to know that Hydrogen is the fuel par excellence. Burning a kilogram of Hydrogen produces 4 times more energy than burning a kilogram of oil, and about 10 times more than a kilo of best coal. Very promising if the technical problems can be solved.
I tend to see getting new technology to work from a historical perspective. Before about 1700, mankind completely failed to tap the potential of coal, even for domestic heating. Difficult to ignite, and requires a grate and chimney to burn well, neither found in ordinary homes until late medieval times. But progress being progress, new homes were eventually built with chimneys, and they were bodged into ordinary hovels too! Efficient coal stoves had to wait for cheap cast-iron, which took another 150 years to become commonplace. Domestic coal took a long time to become popular.
That mechanical energy could be extracted from heat was known to the ancient Greeks, but their technology wasn’t developed enough to tap into it. Nor was the advantage of burning coal rather than wood or charcoal noticed. A thousand years later Savery developed the first practical coal powered pump, but it was very limited and highly inefficient. A few decades after Savery, Newcomen put considerable thought and talent into designing his engine, by which time blacksmithing had advanced sufficiently during the previous century for him to build one. Though they worked, Newcomen’s engines were physically large, and there were considerable problems at first building boilers. This despite them only needing to raise 2 or 3 psi, because the piston was worked by atmospheric pressure (clever!).
Bottom line, Newcomen engines were expensive to run, being less than 1% efficient, and were usually found pumping water out of coal mines, where cheap slack coal was available by the ton. The cost of coal limited their spread into other applications considerably. Fixing that needed an expensive canal network, more problems, and no sooner were they perfected than railways bit, themselves taking about a century to mature.
Smeaton widened the market by improving Newcomen’s original design, taking about 20 years to do it. His enhancements were based on an elaborate series of experiments in which everything was measured carefully. Applied science enabled him to roughly double efficiency. At the same time James Watt was doing similar advanced work, concentrating on the ‘mechanical equivalent of heat’, and going beyond simply improving an existing design. Watt came up with 7 or 8 major advances over about 40 years. The first was the condenser. Still a low-pressure atmospheric engine, but the condenser saved energy by keeping the cylinder hot, making the first Watt engines roughly twice as efficient as the best Smeaton/Newcomen. Translating Watt’s idea into a real engine seriously challenged British industry, who took about 30 years to work out how to bore large diameter cylinders accurately enough to get the clearance between piston and cylinder down from about ¼” to less than ¹⁄₁₆”.
By the time technology had moved on enough to manage high-pressure steam and opened the door to further efficiencies the by then elderly Watt was dead against further progress! He felt that his engines were all the world needed. Despite being a double-barrelled genius in his youth he was of course wrong, ending up using his considerable experience as a nay-sayer. It’s an occupational hazard of living!
My main point though is that determined persistent effort is needed to get new ideas off the ground. There’s always a phase during which new technology is unreliable and sits awkwardly alongside yesteryears methods. But, after the bugs are cleaned up, the advantages of the new way overwhelm the old, which fades away.
Anyone who reads ‘Railway Magazine’ circa 1900, will find correspondents explaining why the motor car will never catch on: good grief – the entire road network will have to be paved, and tens of thousands of refuelling points and maintenance garages built. Won’t be possible to train enough chauffeurs, and motor cars are an unreliable fire hazard with terrible brakes, low mph, and an appalling accident record. In comparison, railways were safe, reliable, and 60mph wasn’t uncommon. Obvious to them that motor cars would be a complete waste of time.
Sixty years later, ME, contains very similar letters from small-c conservatives rejecting diesels. Dozens of objections and much delight in reporting unreliable diesels having to be towed home by good old coal burning chuff-chuffs! Objectors didn’t read the accounts, and missing that essential information, failed to understand why steam had to go as soon as possible. In the same period, after more than a century of superb service, stationary steam engines were being ruthlessly ripped out of factories and pumping stations across the world: killed by electric motors, which have considerable advantages over steam. Lots of folk didn’t understand that either. These changes were all costly, took considerable effort, and had many misadventures on the way. But ten years later, Britain’s steam based infrastructure was gone. And it disappeared everywhere else in the world too – rapidly in advanced economies, more slowly in poorer countries.
Tempus fugit, and now it’s our turn to face up to the need for major change. Fighting change is a waste of time I think – the forces driving it are beyond individuals, or even nations. In the end, what happens is mostly decided by the need to earn money. Though engineering and politics have influence, the main drivers are economic – individuals, businesses, nations, and trade blocs deciding how best to spend their money, causing a constant need to produce more from less.
Will recovery be full? I don’t know! I doubt it, we’re tap-dancing on thin ice. For example, US voters feeling the heat, have elected a president who threatens a trade-war. He believes in tariffs too. His main target is China, but America First includes all foreigners, including us. At present the UK is badly placed relative to the US because we’re outside the powerful European Union and – so far – haven’t concluded a trade deal with the US. Instead we trade on the rather unfavourable US rules they apply to countries who don’t have a trade deal which makes the UK particularly vulnerable if a ‘US first’ policy is applied.
At the same time, China’s economy is showing signs of strain and might even go pop. If it does, there will be wide repercussions. For example, Australia earns a lot of money by exporting huge quantities of coal to China: if China suddenly stopped importing coal, then Australia will be hurt, perhaps badly, reducing their ability to import from the West, which will hurt us.
More problems in other economies around the world; none are rock-solid. And now trade is globalised the impact of a sudden major change anywhere ripples round the planet. Beyond knowing there will be winners and losers, it’s difficult to predict what will happen next. A great deal depends on confidence. Might resolve in smiles all round, though hard-liners make that unlikely. Cycles of boom and bust are probale, and maybe a full-scale global depression, and more shooting wars. I hope not!
Jaguar’s advert isn’t aimed at Model Engineers so what we make of it is irrelevant. I do say though that it’s generated a massive amount of free advertising for Jaguar, and our not understanding that is a good reason for not employing Model Engineers in Advertising Departments. We’re unfamiliar with what Millennials and Zoomers are up to and don’t “get it”.
Although time is remorseless, there is humour in it. My kids are millennials, a group now mature enough for youth to find their attitudes and beliefs ‘old-fashioned’. Only yesterday my daughter and I laughed about her first grey hairs and our mutual total ignorance of today’s pop-music…
Dave