Posted by Robin Graham on 05/04/2022 01:21:44:
Like everyone else I guess have had unwelcome news from my energy supplier – £0.32 per kWh for electricity. Gas has gone up from about £0.04 to ~£0.07 per kWh too. It made me think – given that most UK electricity is still generated by domestic gas fired power stations, which presumably operate at better than 25% efficiency, why are the electrons so pricey?
Robin.
The price consumers pay for gas is complicated by all sorts of issues, but the root cause of this one is supply and demand. When more people want to buy gas than is available, the price rises until someone drops out. If more gas is available than people want to buy, then the price drops.
For over 30 years the UK Wholesale Gas market remained stable, but that happy state of affairs ended last year with sharp rises in price.
First effect was to bankrupt about 30 of the cheap-deal gas retailers, who were prevented from passing on wholesale prices increases to their customers by customer contracts and a government imposed price cap. The cap was designed to stop gas retailers making excessive profits on the assumption gas would stay cheap. Wrong! So the retailers went bust, and their customers were transferred to British Gas, who provide continuity of supply. If you land in the British Gas safety net, they charge the current going rate, not whatever the previous bankrupt supplier agreed to.
Second effect, this month the government lifted the price cap to reflect the actual cost of wholesale gas. Everybody who was protected by the old cap, now has to pay the current rate.
Ironically, whilst Gas Retailers are going bust right, left and centre, Gas Wholesalers make big money from price rises caused by shortages.
Where does UK gas come from? Over half is imported, so anyone who expects the North Sea and Morecombe Bay to keep domestic gas prices low is in for a disappointment.
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The UK competes with the rest of the world to buy gas from producer countries. This year's price bump was partly caused by the economic bounce back after the major disruption caused by COVID. However, whilst worldwide demand for gas continues to increase, it's unlikely prices will fall again. Putin's foolish invasion of Ukraine won't help: presumably he gambles Europe's long-term dependency on Russian Gas will cause everything to be forgiven. (Russia is a major gas producer.) Actually, as appeasing Putin has been followed by escalating bad-behaviour in Chechnya & Co, Syria, Crimea and now Ukraine, I think the West will respond by dramatically cutting trade with Russia and doubling or tripling Defence expenditure. The peace dividend is over: critics would suggest the government and West generally have been very tardy in recognising this.
Rising gas prices are one of two reasons it's vital to move the UK away from burning fossil fuels as a source of energy. North Sea Gas, especially in the Scottish sector, has been in slow decline for 20 years and God isn't making any more! The UK's position in twenty years will be grim unless action is taken now.
As the UK is a rich country, we will be able to buy gas long after poorer countries have been forced out. Already been serious riots in Turkey and elsewhere people have been unable to buy gas at all. Not good for the UK, because violence abroad creates refugees, disrupts trade, and other instability.
Dave