Richard – Of course there were no thermometers 40Ma – nor humans either. They calculate the temperatures from the lingering physical and chemical effects preserved in sediments, ocean-floor cores, cave deposits, fossils (as Mr.C. says) etc. And with due allowance for measurement and arithmetical tolerances.
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Mr. C. – A good point, about land areas sinking, though generally the rate of subsidence is a lot lower than the rate of water rise.
As SE England sinks, NW Scotland rises – more specifically it is probably from the NW European continental plate we occupy, still very slightly rebounding from having depressed by ice-sheet load in the last glaciation.
Southern England was not glaciated, but shivered in Arctic Tundra conditions; and effectively the NW corner of the plate was loaded as a cantilever, bending it down into the soft Mantle. The ice-sheet's thaw and consequent unloading on Scandinavia produced earthquakes even in historical times, but this "isostatic rebound" is now considered ended in that region.
Load? Just 1 square km of ice-cover a modest 1km thick weighs about 9 X 10^8 t.
Malthus' calculations were probably not wrong as such, for his time, but he had to rely on the evidence and statistics available then. The overall world-wide population is still rising, irrespective of regional variations. Not only that but many millions of people lead very deprived lives and naturally want the necessities we too easily take for granted, so the overall drain of resources is increasing.
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Bazyle – How did you, or whowever did, forecast those famines? Quoting almost-definite years is not a very safe way to predict anything, but we won't make ourselves extinct. By the natural way of things our species has about another 2-3m years to go (by the mean life-span of a mammalian species), but of course we have it in "our" power to reduce that considerably.
However, I don't think we will drive ourselves into extinction as you seem to imply, even with massive death-rates through famine, drought and disease – and wars. Plenty will survive, and ironically it might be the least-"developed" societies in the most remote regions who have the best chances of survival.